- 01 — The Backdrop
Best Laid Plans
Severe disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has created both uncertainty and volatility, forcing global energy costs higher, scrambling supply chains and increasing geopolitical risks for investors. It has also reshaped policy.
With inflation concerns now firmly back on the table, the Federal Reserve has held rates and quietly shelved the cuts markets had been betting on. With no tidy ending in sight, the lesson, as ever, is an old one: the future has its own plans.
- 02 — Resilience
Buffeted, Not Broken
And yet, far from buckling, global investment markets and risk appetite have scarcely blinked. The Dow topped 52,000 for the first time in its history, while the S&P 500, Germany’s DAX, and Japan’s Nikkei all reached record highs, with SpaceX also completing the largest IPO in history.
Closer to home, the story is just as encouraging: regional sovereign bonds have remained resilient and our clients, despite a challenging business environment, have continued to invest through the noise.
Source: Bloomberg: Market data as at 29 July 2026;
SpaceX IPO data: Reuters.
- 03 — Concentration
Tech Overload
We, like our clients, are bombarded with financial information and it’s all too easy to find yourself running with the herd. With tech-related mega caps now dominating several global indices, it’s easy to miss that a seemingly diversified portfolio is, in reality, heavily biased towards a single sector/market outcome.
Personally, we’re big believers in both the present and future benefits of AI; however, this new dawn is likely to only further compound the issue, and we feel it’s important not to overlook other markets and more traditional sectors, where valuations are more modest and cashflows are more assured.
“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
- 04 — Diversification
Don't Pick the Winner —
Own the Field
Whether markets will hold at these levels is anybody’s guess. I’ve always liked the quote “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” Here’s the thing: the smartest move isn’t always the boldest — it can also be the broadest.
Investing across regions, asset classes and outcomes prevents investors from being held hostage to a single headline. Disruption also has a habit of leaving bargains behind — mispriced assets, forced sellers, and market dislocations — for those who are positioned broadly and able to act. Our preference is to be diversified and opportunistic, rather than concentrated and hopeful.
- 05 — Our Approach
Unheroic by Design
In a world of conflict, our approach is purposefully unheroic:
- Diversify across regions, asset classes and outcomes.
- Demand proper compensation for illiquidity, opportunity cost and risk.
- Resist building a portfolio around a handful of confident guesses.
- Keep dry powder available so that opportunity finds you ready, not stretched.
Who knows when the fog of war will lift? The secret is having a portfolio that can weather it, and the ability to move quickly when it does.
